April 29, 2015, Queens, NY Technical Superiority. Precision. Adaptation. And Defense. Floyd Mayweather will defeat Manny Pacquiao because technical precision and defense trump speed and power. Name the sport or endeavor where good solid technique doesn’t give you competitive advantage. Would you let the barber cut your hair who has poor technique? Would you let the surgeon operate on you or a loved one who has poor technique? Let’s get to defense. Defense is a prerequisite for success in all sports (at least the ones that feature defense unlike golf, bowling, running, swimming, etc.). Defense wins in football. Defense wins in basketball. Defense wins in baseball. Defense wins in hockey. Defense wins in soccer. Defense wins…period. Boxing is no exception.
Most of the greatest upsets in boxing involve the puncher/slugger being outclassed by the technically sound, defensively-proficient boxer. Think Ali-Liston and Ali-Foreman. Think Leonard-Hagler. And think Tyson-Douglas. Boxing isn’t called the “Sweet Science” for nothing. “Science” indicates logic, method, system, replication, pattern, etc. Mayweather’s “Science” is “Sweeter” than Pacquiao’s. Mayweather has the Ph.D. (Philosophy in Defense). Mayweather is the masterful technician. Mayweather is the fighter who has never been off his feet as a professional. Mayweather is the boxer with the highest punches-thrown-to-punches-landed efficiency. Mayweather is the engineer of evasion and the architect of avoidance. Mayweather has “weathered” the attacking styles of Maidana, Cotto, De La Hoya, Canelo, Mosley, Judah, et al.
Mayweather is 38, but not an old and rustic 38. His training is rougher than his fights. Mayweather’s defense is not predicated on his reflexes, like Pernell “Sweet Pea” Whitaker or an even better example, Wilfredo Benitez, one of the greatest fighters to hail from Puerto Rico. Both fighters’ defensive genius was dependent on their uncanny ability to see the punch coming, wait, and then move to avoid it at the last possible instance. Mayweather’s defense is based on his positioning. Fighters can’t figure him out, at least not once they are actually facing him. On TV he looks really easy to tag. On TV. In the ring, facing him, being in that tight space (called the squared circle)–a whole different story. When boxers face Mayweather, their punch count drops precipitously.
Pacquiao is fast. Pacquiao hits hard. Pacquiao is relentless. But that didn’t help Pacquiao against Juan Manuel Marquez in their last fight. Marquez put Pacquiao down in an earlier round and eventually knocked him into the fifth dimension. Pacquiao’s aggressive nature and pedestrian technique made him vulnerable to a small but not very quick fighter. In Mayweather you have a bigger fighter who is faster, more technically astute, and, believe it or not, hits harder than Marquez. Mayweather is the more composed fighter in a sport where “composure” is everything. What differentiates a professional fighter from the average guy walking is the pro operates on intellect, not emotion. Pacquiao is infinitely more composed than the guy walking; however, relative to other pros, composure isn’t his strong suit. And in Mayweather, you have the most composed fighter arguably ever. Have you ever seen Mayweather rattled? When Shane Mosley buzzed him, twice in the second round of their fight, did Mayweather look flustered? Did Mayweather exude any panic?
What happens to Pacquiao psychologically and emotionally when he can’t land those bombs? What happens to Pacquiao when he has to curtail his punching output? What happens to Pacquiao when he has to back up? What happens to Pacquiao when he has to think? What happens to Pacquiao when he has to resort to Plan B (oh, there is no Plan B)? What happens to Pacquiao when he is forced to become more defensive-minded? What happens to Pacquiao when Freddie Roach has no answers? What happens to Pacquiao when the undoubtedly “Pro-Pacquiao crowd” grows quiet? What happens to Pacquiao when he realizes that he has lost seven of the first nine rounds? What happens to Pacquiao when he realizes that Mayweather hits much harder than he (Pacquiao) anticipated? What happens to Pacquiao when he senses that Mayweather is actually becoming stronger as the fight progresses? What happens to Pacquiao when one of his eyes start to close from all of those sneaky, lead straight right hands? What happens to Pacquiao when he can hear his wife’s piercing screams as Mayweather corners him and throws a barrage of punches?
What happens…?
Pacquiao goes down. And Pacquiao goes out.
Professor Clifford Benton can be reached at cliffb@puresportsny.com.